Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com’s Rankings of Fall Emerging Housing Markets Index

Below is an article from the Wall Street Journal with their 2022 rankings of how metro areas across America stack up. You can read the original article here

It is refreshing to see our metro areas North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton rank #4 and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater rank #11.

Home-buying demand remained robust in low-cost cities but rising mortgage rates have made most home purchases less affordable, pushing many buyers out of the market. Homes are sitting on the market longer, and more sellers are cutting prices.

The WSJ/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index Fall 2022

Metro areas are ranked according to real-estate market data and economic health. Ranking is as of October 2022.

RANK CHANGE AREA STATE
1 Johnson City TN
2 Visalia-Porterville CA
3 Elkhart-Goshen IN
4 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton FL
5 Fort Wayne IN
6 Lafayette-West Lafayette IN
7 Columbia SC
8 Columbia MO
9 Raleigh NC
10 Yuma AZ
11 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL
12 Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL
13 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin TN
14 Colorado Springs CO
15 Burlington NC
16 Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island FL
17 Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR-MO
18 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL
19 Topeka KS
20 Columbus OH
21 Savannah GA
22 Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH
23 Coeur D'Alene ID
24 Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton NC
25 Knoxville TN
26 Port St. Lucie FL
27 Portland-South Portland ME
28 Huntsville AL
29 Manchester-Nashua NH
30 Fresno CA
31 Santa Maria-Santa Barbara CA
32 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA
33 Boulder CO
34 Springfield MO
35 Bakersfield CA
36 Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol TN-VA
37 Amarillo TX
38 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO
39 Billings MT
40 Durham-Chapel Hill NC
41 Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA
42 Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA
43 Grand Junction CO
44 Jefferson City MO
45 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL
46 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC
47 Fort Collins CO
48 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande CA
49 Wichita Falls TX
50 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV
51 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA
52 Louisville/Jefferson County KY-IN
53 Sebastian-Vero Beach FL
54 Charleston-North Charleston SC
55 Chattanooga TN-GA
56 Worcester MA-CT
57 Joplin MO
58 Elizabethtown-Fort Knox KY
59 Providence-Warwick RI-MA
60 Vallejo-Fairfield CA
61 Yuba City CA
62 The Villages FL
63 Salinas CA
64 Wilmington NC
65 Punta Gorda FL
66 Rapid City SD
67 Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach SC-NC
68 Concord NH
69 Springfield MA
70 Janesville-Beloit WI
71 Waco TX
72 Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina HI
73 Spokane-Spokane Valley WA
74 Modesto CA
75 Sioux City IA-NE-SD
76 Stockton-Lodi CA
77 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL
78 Tyler TX
79 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX
80 Reno NV
81 South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI
82 Lubbock TX
83 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ
84 College Station-Bryan TX
85 Yakima WA
86 La Crosse-Onalaska WI-MN
87 Lakeland-Winter Haven FL
88 Austin-Round Rock TX
89 Evansville IN-KY
90 Norwich-New London CT
91 San Diego-Carlsbad CA
92 Bellingham WA
93 Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort SC
94 Asheville NC
95 Dayton OH
96 Eureka-Arcata-Fortuna CA
97 Appleton WI
98 Pueblo CO
99 Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT
100 Longview TX
101 Jacksonville FL
102 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA
103 Rochester NY
104 Ogden-Clearfield UT
105 Homosassa Springs FL
106 Memphis TN-MS-AR
107 Spartanburg SC
108 Boise City ID
109 Gainesville GA
110 Ocala FL
111 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA
112 Roanoke VA
113 Oshkosh-Neenah WI
114 Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway AR
115 Clarksville TN-KY
116 Tucson AZ
117 Lancaster PA
118 Salt Lake City UT
119 Omaha-Council Bluffs NE-IA
120 Wichita KS
121 Burlington-South Burlington VT
122 Killeen-Temple TX
123 Lebanon PA
124 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ
125 Greenville NC
126 Albuquerque NM
127 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA
128 New Haven-Milford CT
129 Kennewick-Richland WA
130 Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI
131 Rochester MN
132 Fayetteville NC
133 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI
134 Panama City FL
135 Lynchburg VA
136 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL
137 Athens-Clarke County GA
138 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN
139 Santa Fe NM
140 Redding CA
141 Fort Smith AR-OK
142 Green Bay WI
143 Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin SC
144 Prescott AZ
145 Wausau WI
146 Olympia-Tumwater WA
147 Jacksonville NC
148 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA
149 Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA
150 Eugene OR
151 Santa Rosa CA
152 Decatur AL
153 Eau Claire WI
154 Cincinnati OH-KY-IN
155 Jackson MS
156 Provo-Orem UT
157 Winston-Salem NC
158 Bremerton-Silverdale WA
159 Tallahassee FL
160 Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin FL
161 Madison WI
162 Racine WI
163 Canton-Massillon OH
164 Lake Havasu City-Kingman AZ
165 Mobile AL
166 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA
167 Chico CA
168 Greeley CO
169 Salem OR
170 Gainesville FL
171 Rockford IL
172 Greensboro-High Point NC
173 Springfield IL
174 Barnstable Town MA
175 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC
176 Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton PA
177 Akron OH
178 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT
179 Huntington-Ashland WV-KY-OH
180 Columbus GA-AL
181 Laredo TX
182 Duluth MN-WI
183 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI
184 Richmond VA
185 Merced CA
186 Claremont-Lebanon NH-VT
187 Anchorage AK
188 Kalamazoo-Portage MI
189 Cedar Rapids IA
190 Auburn-Opelika AL
191 Harrisburg-Carlisle PA
192 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV
193 Birmingham-Hoover AL
194 Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS
195 Bowling Green KY
196 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA
197 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI
198 Lansing-East Lansing MI
199 State College PA
200 Abilene TX
201 Sioux Falls SD
202 Texarkana TX-AR
203 Toledo OH
204 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL
205 Springfield OH
206 Traverse City MI
207 El Paso TX
208 Tulsa OK
209 Hilo HI
210 Dothan AL
211 Oklahoma City OK
212 Bloomington IN
213 Monroe MI
214 Bend-Redmond OR
215 Salisbury MD-DE
216 Bismarck ND
217 San Antonio-New Braunfels TX
218 Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV
219 York-Hanover PA
220 Rocky Mount NC
221 Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA
222 St. Louis MO-IL
223 Saginaw MI
224 St. Cloud MN
225 Warner Robins GA
226 Chambersburg-Waynesboro PA
227 Florence-Muscle Shoals AL
228 Monroe LA
229 Medford OR
230 Florence SC
231 Las Cruces NM
232 Ann Arbor MI
233 Erie PA
234 Macon GA
235 Brownsville-Harlingen TX
236 Terre Haute IN
237 Reading PA
238 Trenton NJ
239 Niles-Benton Harbor MI
240 Morgantown WV
241 Augusta-Richmond County GA-SC
242 Lexington-Fayette KY
243 Cleveland-Elyria OH
244 Kansas City MO-KS
245 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA
246 Dover DE
247 Daphne-Fairhope-Foley AL
248 Hattiesburg MS
249 Montgomery AL
250 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX
251 Charleston WV
252 Tupelo MS
253 Albany GA
254 Urban Honolulu HI
255 Muskegon MI
256 New Orleans-Metairie LA
257 Binghamton NY
258 Battle Creek MI
259 Des Moines-West Des Moines IA
260 Lincoln NE
261 Charlottesville VA
262 Bloomington IL
263 Bangor ME
264 Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls NY
265 Alexandria LA
266 East Stroudsburg PA
267 Wheeling WV-OH
268 Pottsville PA
269 Torrington CT
270 Midland TX
271 Peoria IL
272 Fargo ND-MN
273 Corpus Christi TX
274 Beaumont-Port Arthur TX
275 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD
276 Iowa City IA
277 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD
278 Johnstown PA
279 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI
280 Davenport-Moline-Rock Island IA-IL
281 Syracuse NY
282 Houma-Thibodaux LA
283 Baton Rouge LA
284 Pittsburgh PA
285 Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ
286 Lafayette LA
287 Flint MI
288 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission TX
289 Lake Charles LA
290 Tuscaloosa AL
291 Pittsfield MA
292 Ottawa-Peru IL
293 Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY
294 Champaign-Urbana IL
295 Kingston NY
296 Odessa TX
297 Shreveport-Bossier City LA
298 Utica-Rome NY
299 Jackson MI
300 New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA

 

Methodology

To identify the top emerging housing markets, the Journal and Realtor.com reviewed data for the 300 most populous core-based statistical areas, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau. (Note: The Journal and Realtor.com are both owned by parent company News Corp.)

The overall methodology explores two main areas: real-estate markets (50%) and economic health (50%). Those two areas comprise the following key indicators:

Real-Estate Supply (16.6%)

Measures the relative scarcity of real estate for sale in a market compared with others based on real-estate listings’ median number of days on the market. Markets with a high supply score have relatively few days on the market compared with other areas. That relatively limited supply is likely to lead to home-price growth. In contrast, markets with a low supply score have more days on the market compared with other areas, indicating that relatively abundant supply will help alleviate pressure on home prices. (Source: Realtor.com)

Real-Estate Demand (16.6%)

Measures the relative abundance of real-estate demand in a market compared with other markets based on the average number of unique viewers per real-estate listing. Markets with a high demand score have a relatively large number of unique viewers per home. That abundant buyer demand is likely to lead to home-price growth. In contrast, markets with a low demand score have a smaller number of unique viewers per real-estate listing, indicating that more-limited buyer demand will help curb upward pressure on home prices. (Source: Realtor.com)

Median Home Listing Price Trend (16.6%)

Measures recent home-price performance compared with other markets based on typical asking prices for real-estate listings that are active on Realtor.com.

Unemployment (6.25%)

Measures the relative health of the local job market. Data consists of the estimated percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older who weren’t employed during the reference period. The seasonally adjusted series is used in the index. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Wages (6.25%)

Measures the relative quality of employment in the area in terms of total wages. Data consists of the median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers, before taxes and other deductions, including any overtime pay, commissions or tips. Doesn’t include self-employed workers. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Regional Price Parities (6.25%)

Measures how expensive it is to live and work in a metro area. RPP consists of differences in price levels across metropolitan areas for a given year, expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level. RPP covers all consumer goods and services, including housing rents. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Amenities (6.25%)

Measures livability of an area in terms of available amenities, as represented by chain stores known for “everyday splurge” purchases, a signal of discretionary consumer income. Data consists of the number of Starbucks, Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s locations within the area, per capita. (Source: WSJ analysis of publicly available store locations)

Commute (6.25%)

Measures quality of life in terms of how long residents have to spend every day getting to and from work. Data consists of average one-way travel time among workers ages 16 years and older who didn’t work from home. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Foreign-Born Residents (6.25%)

Measures the economic health and diversity of an area as represented by the portion of the populace that was born outside the U.S. Studies indicate a strong correlation between the economic vitality of a region and the number of foreign-born residents. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Small Businesses (6.25%)

Measures the economic health and diversity of an area as represented by small-business activity. Data consists of the number of granted SBA 7(a) loans per capita. (Source: U.S. Small Business Administration)

Property Taxes (6.25%)

Measures real-estate taxes based on median home price. Areas with higher effective real-estate taxes are ranked lower while areas with lower effective real-estate taxes are ranked higher. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Final Score

Each indicator is indexed to normalize the data, and a composite score is produced by adding those values for each geography. The sums are sorted to produce the final ranking. If two or more U.S. metropolitan areas tie in their final score, then the Real-Estate Demand indicator is used to break the tie.

Write to Inti Pacheco at [email protected]

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