Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com’s Rankings of Fall Emerging Housing Markets Index

Below is an article from the Wall Street Journal with their 2022 rankings of how metro areas across America stack up. You can read the original article here. 

It is refreshing to see our metro areas North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton rank #4 and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater rank #11.

Home-buying demand remained robust in low-cost cities but rising mortgage rates have made most home purchases less affordable, pushing many buyers out of the market. Homes are sitting on the market longer, and more sellers are cutting prices.

The WSJ/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Markets Index Fall 2022

Metro areas are ranked according to real-estate market data and economic health. Ranking is as of October 2022.

RANK	CHANGE	AREA	STATE
1	▲	Johnson City	TN
2	▲	Visalia-Porterville	CA
3	▼	Elkhart-Goshen	IN
4	▲	North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton	FL
5	▼	Fort Wayne	IN
6	▲	Lafayette-West Lafayette	IN
7	▲	Columbia	SC
8	▲	Columbia	MO
9	▼	Raleigh	NC
10	▲	Yuma	AZ
11	▲	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater	FL
12	▲	Cape Coral-Fort Myers	FL
13	▲	Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin	TN
14	▲	Colorado Springs	CO
15	▼	Burlington	NC
16	▲	Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island	FL
17	▲	Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers	AR-MO
18	▲	Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford	FL
19	▼	Topeka	KS
20	▲	Columbus	OH
21	▲	Savannah	GA
22	▲	Boston-Cambridge-Newton	MA-NH
23	▲	Coeur D'Alene	ID
24	▲	Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton	NC
25	▲	Knoxville	TN
26	▲	Port St. Lucie	FL
27	▼	Portland-South Portland	ME
28	▼	Huntsville	AL
29	▼	Manchester-Nashua	NH
30	▲	Fresno	CA
31	▼	Santa Maria-Santa Barbara	CA
32	▼	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara	CA
33	▼	Boulder	CO
34	▲	Springfield	MO
35	▲	Bakersfield	CA
36	▼	Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol	TN-VA
37	▲	Amarillo	TX
38	▲	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood	CO
39	▼	Billings	MT
40	▼	Durham-Chapel Hill	NC
41	▼	Santa Cruz-Watsonville	CA
42	▲	Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade	CA
43	▲	Grand Junction	CO
44	▼	Jefferson City	MO
45	▼	Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent	FL
46	▼	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia	NC-SC
47	▼	Fort Collins	CO
48	▼	San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande	CA
49	▲	Wichita Falls	TX
50	▲	Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise	NV
51	▼	Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura	CA
52	▲	Louisville/Jefferson County	KY-IN
53	▲	Sebastian-Vero Beach	FL
54	▲	Charleston-North Charleston	SC
55	▲	Chattanooga	TN-GA
56	▼	Worcester	MA-CT
57	▲	Joplin	MO
58	▼	Elizabethtown-Fort Knox	KY
59	▲	Providence-Warwick	RI-MA
60	▼	Vallejo-Fairfield	CA
61	▼	Yuba City	CA
62	▲	The Villages	FL
63	▼	Salinas	CA
64	▼	Wilmington	NC
65	▼	Punta Gorda	FL
66	▼	Rapid City	SD
67	▲	Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach	SC-NC
68	▼	Concord	NH
69	▲	Springfield	MA
70	▼	Janesville-Beloit	WI
71	▼	Waco	TX
72	▲	Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina	HI
73	▼	Spokane-Spokane Valley	WA
74	▼	Modesto	CA
75	▲	Sioux City	IA-NE-SD
76	▼	Stockton-Lodi	CA
77	▲	Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach	FL
78	▼	Tyler	TX
79	▲	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	TX
80	▼	Reno	NV
81	▲	South Bend-Mishawaka	IN-MI
82	▲	Lubbock	TX
83	▲	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale	AZ
84	▲	College Station-Bryan	TX
85	▲	Yakima	WA
86	▼	La Crosse-Onalaska	WI-MN
87	▼	Lakeland-Winter Haven	FL
88	▼	Austin-Round Rock	TX
89	▲	Evansville	IN-KY
90	▲	Norwich-New London	CT
91	▲	San Diego-Carlsbad	CA
92	▼	Bellingham	WA
93	▼	Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort	SC
94	▲	Asheville	NC
95	▼	Dayton	OH
96	▼	Eureka-Arcata-Fortuna	CA
97	▼	Appleton	WI
98	▼	Pueblo	CO
99	▲	Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford	CT
100	▼	Longview	TX
101	▲	Jacksonville	FL
102	▲	San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward	CA
103	▼	Rochester	NY
104	▼	Ogden-Clearfield	UT
105	▼	Homosassa Springs	FL
106	▲	Memphis	TN-MS-AR
107	▲	Spartanburg	SC
108	▲	Boise City	ID
109	▼	Gainesville	GA
110	▼	Ocala	FL
111	▲	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue	WA
112	▲	Roanoke	VA
113	▲	Oshkosh-Neenah	WI
114	▲	Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway	AR
115	▲	Clarksville	TN-KY
116	▲	Tucson	AZ
117	▲	Lancaster	PA
118	▼	Salt Lake City	UT
119	▲	Omaha-Council Bluffs	NE-IA
120	▲	Wichita	KS
121	▼	Burlington-South Burlington	VT
122	▼	Killeen-Temple	TX
123	▲	Lebanon	PA
124	▲	Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton	PA-NJ
125	▼	Greenville	NC
126	▲	Albuquerque	NM
127	▲	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim	CA
128	▼	New Haven-Milford	CT
129	▼	Kennewick-Richland	WA
130	▲	Grand Rapids-Wyoming	MI
131	▲	Rochester	MN
132	▲	Fayetteville	NC
133	▲	Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis	WI
134	▲	Panama City	FL
135	▲	Lynchburg	VA
136	▼	Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville	FL
137	▼	Athens-Clarke County	GA
138	▲	Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson	IN
139	▼	Santa Fe	NM
140	▲	Redding	CA
141	▲	Fort Smith	AR-OK
142	▲	Green Bay	WI
143		Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin	SC
144	▼	Prescott	AZ
145	▼	Wausau	WI
146	▼	Olympia-Tumwater	WA
147	▼	Jacksonville	NC
148	▲	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro	OR-WA
149	▼	Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford	VA
150	▼	Eugene	OR
151	▼	Santa Rosa	CA
152	▼	Decatur	AL
153	▲	Eau Claire	WI
154	▲	Cincinnati	OH-KY-IN
155	▲	Jackson	MS
156	▼	Provo-Orem	UT
157	▼	Winston-Salem	NC
158	▼	Bremerton-Silverdale	WA
159	▲	Tallahassee	FL
160	▼	Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin	FL
161	▼	Madison	WI
162	▼	Racine	WI
163	▼	Canton-Massillon	OH
164	▲	Lake Havasu City-Kingman	AZ
165	▲	Mobile	AL
166	▼	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario	CA
167	▼	Chico	CA
168	▼	Greeley	CO
169	▼	Salem	OR
170	▲	Gainesville	FL
171	▲	Rockford	IL
172	▼	Greensboro-High Point	NC
173	▲	Springfield	IL
174	▼	Barnstable Town	MA
175	▲	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News	VA-NC
176	▲	Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton	PA
177	▼	Akron	OH
178	▲	Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk	CT
179	▲	Huntington-Ashland	WV-KY-OH
180	▲	Columbus	GA-AL
181	▲	Laredo	TX
182	▲	Duluth	MN-WI
183	▲	Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington	MN-WI
184	▲	Richmond	VA
185	▼	Merced	CA
186	▼	Claremont-Lebanon	NH-VT
187	▼	Anchorage	AK
188	▼	Kalamazoo-Portage	MI
189	▲	Cedar Rapids	IA
190	▼	Auburn-Opelika	AL
191	▼	Harrisburg-Carlisle	PA
192	▲	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria	DC-VA-MD-WV
193	▲	Birmingham-Hoover	AL
194	▲	Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula	MS
195	▼	Bowling Green	KY
196	▼	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell	GA
197	▲	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn	MI
198	▲	Lansing-East Lansing	MI
199	▼	State College	PA
200	▼	Abilene	TX
201	▼	Sioux Falls	SD
202	▲	Texarkana	TX-AR
203	▼	Toledo	OH
204	▲	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach	FL
205	▼	Springfield	OH
206	▼	Traverse City	MI
207	▲	El Paso	TX
208	▲	Tulsa	OK
209	▲	Hilo	HI
210	▼	Dothan	AL
211	▲	Oklahoma City	OK
212	▼	Bloomington	IN
213	▼	Monroe	MI
214	▼	Bend-Redmond	OR
215	▲	Salisbury	MD-DE
216	▲	Bismarck	ND
217	▲	San Antonio-New Braunfels	TX
218	▼	Hagerstown-Martinsburg	MD-WV
219	▲	York-Hanover	PA
220	▼	Rocky Mount	NC
221	▲	Waterloo-Cedar Falls	IA
222	▲	St. Louis	MO-IL
223	▼	Saginaw	MI
224	▼	St. Cloud	MN
225	▼	Warner Robins	GA
226	▼	Chambersburg-Waynesboro	PA
227	▲	Florence-Muscle Shoals	AL
228	▲	Monroe	LA
229	▲	Medford	OR
230	▲	Florence	SC
231	▲	Las Cruces	NM
232	▼	Ann Arbor	MI
233	▼	Erie	PA
234	▲	Macon	GA
235	▲	Brownsville-Harlingen	TX
236	▼	Terre Haute	IN
237	▼	Reading	PA
238	▲	Trenton	NJ
239	▼	Niles-Benton Harbor	MI
240	▼	Morgantown	WV
241	▼	Augusta-Richmond County	GA-SC
242	▲	Lexington-Fayette	KY
243	▲	Cleveland-Elyria	OH
244	▲	Kansas City	MO-KS
245	▼	Youngstown-Warren-Boardman	OH-PA
246	▼	Dover	DE
247	▼	Daphne-Fairhope-Foley	AL
248	▼	Hattiesburg	MS
249	▼	Montgomery	AL
250	▲	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land	TX
251	▲	Charleston	WV
252	▲	Tupelo	MS
253	▼	Albany	GA
254	▲	Urban Honolulu	HI
255	▼	Muskegon	MI
256	▲	New Orleans-Metairie	LA
257	▲	Binghamton	NY
258	▼	Battle Creek	MI
259	▲	Des Moines-West Des Moines	IA
260	▼	Lincoln	NE
261	▼	Charlottesville	VA
262	▼	Bloomington	IL
263	▼	Bangor	ME
264	▼	Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls	NY
265	▲	Alexandria	LA
266	▼	East Stroudsburg	PA
267	▼	Wheeling	WV-OH
268	▼	Pottsville	PA
269	▼	Torrington	CT
270	▲	Midland	TX
271	▼	Peoria	IL
272	▼	Fargo	ND-MN
273	▲	Corpus Christi	TX
274		Beaumont-Port Arthur	TX
275	▼	Baltimore-Columbia-Towson	MD
276	▲	Iowa City	IA
277	▲	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	PA-NJ-DE-MD
278	▼	Johnstown	PA
279		Chicago-Naperville-Elgin	IL-IN-WI
280	▲	Davenport-Moline-Rock Island	IA-IL
281	▲	Syracuse	NY
282	▼	Houma-Thibodaux	LA
283	▼	Baton Rouge	LA
284	▲	Pittsburgh	PA
285	▼	Atlantic City-Hammonton	NJ
286	▼	Lafayette	LA
287	▼	Flint	MI
288	▲	McAllen-Edinburg-Mission	TX
289	▲	Lake Charles	LA
290	▼	Tuscaloosa	AL
291	▼	Pittsfield	MA
292	▼	Ottawa-Peru	IL
293	▲	Albany-Schenectady-Troy	NY
294	▼	Champaign-Urbana	IL
295		Kingston	NY
296	▲	Odessa	TX
297	▲	Shreveport-Bossier City	LA
298	▼	Utica-Rome	NY
299	▼	Jackson	MI
300		New York-Newark-Jersey City	NY-NJ-PA

 

Methodology

To identify the top emerging housing markets, the Journal and Realtor.com reviewed data for the 300 most populous core-based statistical areas, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau. (Note: The Journal and Realtor.com are both owned by parent company News Corp.)

The overall methodology explores two main areas: real-estate markets (50%) and economic health (50%). Those two areas comprise the following key indicators:

Real-Estate Supply (16.6%)

Measures the relative scarcity of real estate for sale in a market compared with others based on real-estate listings’ median number of days on the market. Markets with a high supply score have relatively few days on the market compared with other areas. That relatively limited supply is likely to lead to home-price growth. In contrast, markets with a low supply score have more days on the market compared with other areas, indicating that relatively abundant supply will help alleviate pressure on home prices. (Source: Realtor.com)

Real-Estate Demand (16.6%)

Measures the relative abundance of real-estate demand in a market compared with other markets based on the average number of unique viewers per real-estate listing. Markets with a high demand score have a relatively large number of unique viewers per home. That abundant buyer demand is likely to lead to home-price growth. In contrast, markets with a low demand score have a smaller number of unique viewers per real-estate listing, indicating that more-limited buyer demand will help curb upward pressure on home prices. (Source: Realtor.com)

Median Home Listing Price Trend (16.6%)

Measures recent home-price performance compared with other markets based on typical asking prices for real-estate listings that are active on Realtor.com.

Unemployment (6.25%)

Measures the relative health of the local job market. Data consists of the estimated percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older who weren’t employed during the reference period. The seasonally adjusted series is used in the index. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Wages (6.25%)

Measures the relative quality of employment in the area in terms of total wages. Data consists of the median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers, before taxes and other deductions, including any overtime pay, commissions or tips. Doesn’t include self-employed workers. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Regional Price Parities (6.25%)

Measures how expensive it is to live and work in a metro area. RPP consists of differences in price levels across metropolitan areas for a given year, expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level. RPP covers all consumer goods and services, including housing rents. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Amenities (6.25%)

Measures livability of an area in terms of available amenities, as represented by chain stores known for “everyday splurge” purchases, a signal of discretionary consumer income. Data consists of the number of Starbucks, Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s locations within the area, per capita. (Source: WSJ analysis of publicly available store locations)

Commute (6.25%)

Measures quality of life in terms of how long residents have to spend every day getting to and from work. Data consists of average one-way travel time among workers ages 16 years and older who didn’t work from home. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Foreign-Born Residents (6.25%)

Measures the economic health and diversity of an area as represented by the portion of the populace that was born outside the U.S. Studies indicate a strong correlation between the economic vitality of a region and the number of foreign-born residents. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Small Businesses (6.25%)

Measures the economic health and diversity of an area as represented by small-business activity. Data consists of the number of granted SBA 7(a) loans per capita. (Source: U.S. Small Business Administration)

Property Taxes (6.25%)

Measures real-estate taxes based on median home price. Areas with higher effective real-estate taxes are ranked lower while areas with lower effective real-estate taxes are ranked higher. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Final Score

Each indicator is indexed to normalize the data, and a composite score is produced by adding those values for each geography. The sums are sorted to produce the final ranking. If two or more U.S. metropolitan areas tie in their final score, then the Real-Estate Demand indicator is used to break the tie.

Write to Inti Pacheco at [email protected]