Is Downtown Sarasota a Buyer's Market Now?

Posted by Marc Rasmussen on Wednesday, October 10th, 2018 at 3:09pm.

Is Downtown Sarasota a Buyers Market?

 

This morning I was using our Trendgraphix software to stay on top of the real estate market. It slices and dices the MLS data into charts and statistics. We do this to better serve our customers, stay educated on market trends, be better Realtors and to not become obsolete in an industry that is being disrupted daily by well-capitalized companies looking to siphon off our real estate commissions.

Downtown Sarasota Real Estate Market Update for September 2018

Let's take a look at zip code 34236 which includes downtown Sarasota, Bird Key and Lido Key. Here are some observations from Trendgraphix: 

September 2018 Downtown Sarasota Real Estate Market Update

September 2018 is a Buyer's market! The number of for sale listings was up 5.6% from one year earlier and up 3.6% from the previous month. The number of sold listings increased 15.4% year over year and decreased 14.3% month over month. The number of under contract listings was down 16.2% compared to previous month and up 34.8% compared to previous year. The Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales is 10.7, down 8.6% from the previous year.

The Average Sold Price per Square Footage was up 14.5% compared to previous month and down 2.4% compared to last year. The Median Sold Price increased by 55.7% from last month. The Average Sold Price also increased by 31.4% from last month. Based on the 6 month trend, the Average Sold Price trend is "Neutral" and the Median Sold Price trend is "Neutral".

The Average Days on Market showed a neutral trend, a decrease of 13.3% compared to previous year. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price is 89%, was the same compared to previous year.

My take: Due to seasonality, I think comparing the same month of different years is better than comparing changes from month to month of the same year (August 2018 to September 2018). I believe Trendgraphix is calling it a buyer's market because the number of sold listings decreased 14.3%, the number of pending contract declined 16.2% from August 2018 to September 2018. However, when you compare September 2017 to September 2018 you will see that number of sold listings increased 15.4% and the number of pending listings also increased 34.8%. At a quick glance (that means I need to look a little deeper), I view the downtown Sarasota real estate market as more active/stronger in September 2018 than for the same month in 2017.

Average Sold Price per Square Foot is Neutral

Average Sold Price Per Square Foot  Chart for Downtown Sarasota 

Based on a 6 month trend the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a great indicator for the direction of property values. Since Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price can be impacted by the 'mix' of high or low end properties in the market, the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator on the direction of property values. The September 2018 Average Sold Price per Square Footage of $450 was up 14.5% from $393 last month and 2.4% from $461 in September 2017.

The Days on Market Shows Neutral Trend

Downtown Sarasota Days on Market and Sold/Original List Price Ratio

Based on a 6 month trend the average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM trends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for September 2018 was 111, up 3.7% from 107 days last month and down 13.3% from 128 days in September of last year.

The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady

Based on a 6 month trend the Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. This month Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 89% is the same as last month and the same as in September of last year.

 

Average and Median Sales Prices for Downtown Sarasota

September 2018 Downtown Sarasota average and median sales price

The Average For Sale Price is Neutral

The Average For Sale Price in September was $1,288,000, up 0.1% from $1,287,000 in September of 2017 and up 2.3% from $1,259,000 last month.

The Average Sold Price is Neutral

The Average Sold Price in September was $857,000, down 1.9% from $874,000 in September of 2017 and up 31.4% from $652,000 last month.

The Median Sold Price is Neutral

The Median Sold Price in September was $615,000, down 5.4% from $650,000 in September of 2017 and up 55.7% from $395,000 last month.

 

Months of Inventory in Downtown Sarasota

Downtown Sarasota months of real estate inventory

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales

The September 2018 Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales of 10.7 was decreased by 8.6% compared to last year and up 21.5% compared to last month. September 2018 is Buyer's market.

Months of Inventory based on Pended Sales

The September 2018 Months of Inventory based on Pended Sales of 10.3 was decreased by 22% compared to last year and up 22.8% compared to last month. September 2018 is Buyer's market.

 

Absorption Rates for Downtown Sarasota Real Estate 

Downtown Sarasota real estate absorption rates for September 2018

Absorption Rate measures the inverse of Months of Inventory and represents how much of the current active listings (as a percentage) are being absorbed each month.

Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales

The September 2018 Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales of 9.4 was increased by 9.3% compared to last year and down 16.8% compared to last month.

Absorption Rate based on Pended Sales

The September 2018 Absorption Rate based on Pended Sales of 9.7 was increased by 27.7% compared to last year and down 19.2% compared to last month.

 

Conclusion

Using purely statistical data Trendgraphix believes that the Downtown Sarasota real estate market (zip code 34236) is in a buyer's market. However, I don't agree with that yet. Based on their criteria it could easily change when October numbers come out. Wait and see.

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