Inventories up 13% - Market Slow Down?

Posted by Marc Rasmussen on Tuesday, March 5th, 2019 at 9:49am.

 

Is the party over?

Let's take a look at some supply and demand statistics for real estate in Sarasota & Manatee counties. 

 

Above charts shows Sarasota and Manatee county home and condos for sale, pended and sold from November 2017 to January 2019 in all price ranges. The number of for sale listings was up 13.2% from one year earlier and up 10.9% from the previous month. As of today, March 5th, there are 9,404 properties for sale in both counties. The number of sold listings decreased 19.1% when comparing January 2018 to January 2019 and decreased 22.3% month over month. The number of under contract listings was down 3.7% compared to last January. The months of inventory based on closed sales is 7.9, up 41% from the previous year.

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago    TODAY STATS
  Jan. 19 Dec. 18 % Change Jan. 19 Jan. 18 % Change Nov. 18 to Jan. 19 Nov. 17 to Jan. 18 % Change 3/1/2019 - 3/4/2019 2/1/2019 - 2/4/2019 % Change
For Sale 9,271 8,357 10.9%  9,271 8,191 13.2%  9,271 8,191 13.2%  9,404 9,249 1.7% 
Sold 1,180 1,519 -22.3%  1,180 1,459 -19.1%  4,363 4,779 -8.7%  139 138 0.7% 
Pended 2,078 1,247 66.6%  2,078 2,157 -3.7%  4,755 5,263 -9.7%  273 298 -8.4% 

 

 

Sarasota & Manatee County Real Estate Statistics - $0 - $999,999 

Homes and condos for sale in both counties priced from $0 - $999,999 - The number of for sale listings was up 13.1% from one year earlier and up 11.1% from the previous month. The number of sold listings decreased 18.4% year over year and decreased 22.8% month over month. The number of under contract listings was up 67.1% compared to previous month and down 2.3% compared to previous year. The months of inventory based on closed sales is 7.3, up 37.8% from the previous year.
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago    TODAY STATS
  Jan. 19 Dec. 18 % Change Jan. 19 Jan. 18 % Change Nov. 18 to Jan. 19 Nov. 17 to Jan. 18 % Change 3/1/2019 - 3/4/2019 2/1/2019 - 2/4/2019 % Change
For Sale 8263 7439 11.1%  8263 7308 13.1%  8263 7308 13.1%  8367 8247 1.5% 
Sold 1128 1462 -22.8%  1128 1383 -18.4%  4204 4506 -6.7%  133 130 2.3% 
Pended 1997 1195 67.1%  1997 2045 -2.3%  4561 4962 -8.1%  267 287 -7% 

 

Sarasota & Manatee County Real Estate Statistics - $1,000,000 - $1,999,999

 

Homes and condos for sale in both counties priced from $1,000,000 - $1,999,999  - The number of for sale listings was up 10% from one year earlier and up 9.6% from the previous month. The number of sold listings decreased 25.9% when comparing January 2018 to January 2019 and decreased 2.4% month over month. The number of under contract listings was up 41% compared to previous month and down 38.9% compared to previous year. The months of inventory based on closed sales is 16.6, up 48.4% from the previous year.
Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago    TODAY STATS
  Jan. 19 Dec. 18 % Change Jan. 19 Jan. 18 % Change Nov. 18 to Jan. 19 Nov. 17 to Jan. 18 % Change 3/1/2019 - 3/4/2019 2/1/2019 - 2/4/2019 % Change
For Sale 663 605 9.6%  663 603 10%  663 603 10%  670 662 1.2% 
Sold 40 41 -2.4%  40 54 -25.9%  115 203 -43.3%  5 4 25% 
Pended 55 39 41%  55 90 -38.9%  143 247 -42.1%  3 7 -57.1% 

 

Sarasota & Manatee County Real Estate Statistics - $2,000,000+

Homes and condos for sale in both counties priced from $2,000,000+ - The number of for sale listings was up 23.2% from one year earlier and up 10.2% from the previous month. The number of sold listings decreased 45.5% when comparing January 2018 to January 2019 and decreased 25% month over month. The number of under contract listings was up 100% compared to previous month and up 18.2% compared to previous year. The months of inventory based on closed sales is 28.8, up 126.5% from the previous year.

Curnt vs. Prev Month Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago Curnt vs. Same Qtr 1 Yr Ago    TODAY STATS
  Jan. 19 Dec. 18 % Change Jan. 19 Jan. 18 % Change Nov. 18 to Jan. 19 Nov. 17 to Jan. 18 % Change 3/1/2019 - 3/4/2019 2/1/2019 - 2/4/2019 % Change
For Sale 345 313 10.2%  345 280 23.2%  345 280 23.2%  367 340 7.9% 
Sold 12 16 -25%  12 22 -45.5%  44 70 -37.1%  1 4 -75% 
Pended 26 13 100%  26 22 18.2%  51 54 -5.6%  3 4 -25% 

 

 Summary

  Months of For Sale For Sale   Sold Sold   Pended Pended  
  Inventory Jan 2019 Jan 2018 Change Jan 2019 Jan 2018 Change Jan 2019 Jan 2018 Change
 All Prices 7.9 9,271 8,191 13.2%  1,180 1,459 -19.1%  2,078 2,157 -3.7% 
 $0 - $999,999 7.3  8,263 7,308  13.1%  1,128 1,383  -18.4%  1,997 2,045 -2.3% 
 $1m - $1.999m 16.6 663 603 10%  40 54 -25.9%  55 90 -38.9% 
 $2m+ 28.8 345 280 23.2%  12 22 -45.5%  26 22 18.2% 
                     

As you can see by the data above, inventories of homes and condos are up in all price ranges. The number of sold properties declined as well as those that went under contract (pended). 

What does all of this mean?

It simply means that buyers have more properties to choose from and sellers have more competition. For the time being, the pendulum has moved so that the buyers have more leverage. However, this can change back quickly.

A slow down in the real estate market isn't necessarily something to get depressed about. Home prices can't increase at record levels forever. In my opinion, a breather every now then helps prevent a market crash.

 

 

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